Deerfield Beach, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

759
FXUS62 KMFL 042259
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
659 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Weather pattern remains in place with a light south-southeast wind
flow. Showers and a few thunderstorms have been developing since
late this morning and at first were concentration along the east
coast. As the afternoon has go on, outflow boundaries from these
storms have induced the development of new storms towards the
interior areas with a general flow to the north. And new
development is expected to continue this afternoon into early
evening.

The ridge that has been extending from the Atlantic toward the FL
peninsula has weaken and development of storms over south FL will
occur on Tuesday, starting in the late morning hours through the
evening and increasing in coverage compared to today. Temps will
rise again to the mid 90s with heat indexes rising to 100-105
range on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Ensemble consensus depict deepening mid/upper troughiness across the
SE CONUS and the northern Gulf waters, with several shortwave
impulses moving along the trough towards the Atlantic. At the
low/sfc lvl, latest analyses show the frontal boundary lingering
over the Florida panhandle pushing a little further southward today,
remaining just north of the Orlando/Melbourne area. Guidance seems
to keep the front in place today, then lifting back northward on
Tuesday as a weak ridge axis over the west Atlantic lifts northward
and into the central portions of the peninsula.

The overall synoptic pattern will result in winds shifting to a more
southerly flow, even SSW at times. In response, moisture advection
will increase, with POPs/Wx coverage on a rising trend during the
short term. Chances of rain/thunderstorms will be in the scattered
to numerous category, with POPs over the interior and west areas
of SoFlo up to around 70 percent by Tuesday. Latest model
soundings also show an upward trend in PWATs with possible 2+
inches by Tuesday.

Expect the prevailing pattern of diurnal cycle-induced convection
to continue, with scattered to numerous and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Sea breezes will again become focal points for the
deepest convection and the strongest storms. The southerly
component will help in keeping the best chances over interior and
NW areas of SoFlo. A few early evening showers or storms may
linger around coastal locations. Main hazards will be frequent
lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased potential
for large hail.

Heat impacts will again become an issue today with heat index values
reaching the 105-110 range this afternoon. Therefore, an advisory
will again be in effect today from 11am to 7pm for much of SoFlo.
Afternoon max temps will be in the low-mid 90s, along with
nighttime lows in the mid- upper 70s inland, and in the low 80s
closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Model consensus remains consistent in showing a deeper U/L trough
over the extreme SE CONUS and extending into the NE Gulf waters to
start the long term. At the low levels, the nearly stagnant
synoptic flow will allow for a sfc frontal boundary to linger over
extreme northern Florida through the end of the week. Meanwhile,
a series of shortwave impulses are seen in ensemble and global
solutions moving along the main trough, which may result in
enhanced favorable upper level conditions for deeper convection
and stronger thunderstorms. The bulk of convective activity is
again expected during the afternoon hours and into the early
evening hours each day.

POPs/Wx coverage should steadily increase with 60-80 percent chances
for the second half of the work week, even up to 90 percent possible
in some locations Thu and Fri. Model PWATs of 2 inches or higher may
result in localized heavy showers, especially with slow-moving
thunderstorms. Main hazards will again be frequent lightning
strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased potential for large
hail.

Expect afternoon high temp values in the low 90s near the coasts,
and mid-upper 90s for inland areas and the Lake region. Nighttime
lows should remain in the mid 70s inland to around 80 near the
coasts. Heat index values of 105-110 are possible at least on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

With most of the storm activity across the interior, terminals
will remain in VFR through the night with the exception of APF
that could see a brief shower through 05/02z. SHRA/TSRA are expected
again across the local east airports by late Tuesday morning into
mid afternoon. With a more easterly flow, storms will then push
inland and affect APF starting by mid- afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Light to moderate south-southeasterly winds to continue during the
first half of the work week. Only exception will be with Gulf
breezes bringing a shift to west-southwesterly flow winds over
the west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft,
except around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Rip current risk will remain moderate across the West Palm Beach
coastal waters for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  93  81  92 /  30  50  20  60
West Kendall     79  93  78  92 /  30  50  20  60
Opa-Locka        81  94  80  94 /  30  50  20  50
Homestead        80  92  79  91 /  30  40  20  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  92  80  91 /  30  50  20  50
N Ft Lauderdale  82  93  81  92 /  30  50  20  50
Pembroke Pines   82  96  81  95 /  30  50  20  50
West Palm Beach  79  94  79  92 /  30  50  20  50
Boca Raton       79  94  79  93 /  30  50  20  50
Naples           79  94  79  95 /  30  70  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...KN